Milwaukee Brewers at Kansas City Royals odds, picks and predictions
The Kansas City Royals (20-15) welcome the Milwaukee Brewers (20-13) to Kauffman Stadium Monday. First pitch to commence the 3-game series is set for 7:40 p.m. ET. Let's analyze FanDuel Sportsbook's lines around the Brewers vs. Royals odds and make our expert MLB picks and predictions for the best bets.
Season series: First meeting; Brewers won 3-0 last season
The Royals lost to the Texas Rangers 3-2 Sunday at home, but did cover as a run-line underdog, closing at +126 on the moneyline. They have lost 2 in a row and 5 of their last 8 games. Kansas City is 22-13 against the spread (ATS) on the season and 13-7 straight up at home.
The Brewers lost 5-0 to the Chicago Cubs Sunday on the road, failing to cover as a run-line favorite. They lost the last 2 of that 3-game series and have lost 5 of their last 8 games. Milwaukee is 13-6 on the road, the 3rd-best win percentage in the majors, and 19-14 ATS.
Brewers at Royals projected starters
RHP Bryse Wilson vs. LHP Cole Ragans
Wilson (2-1, 3.00 ERA) makes his 4th start. He has a 1.00 WHIP, 2.6 BB/9 and 7.9 K/9 in 24 IP.
- Last start: Loss, 6 IP, 1 ER, 4 H, 2 BB, 6 K in 1-0 home loss vs. Tampa Bay Rays April 29
- 2024 road splits: 2-0, 4.50 ERA, 10 IP, 5 ER, 8 H (2 HR), 3 BB, 6 K in 5 appearances (1 start)
- Has never faced Kansas City
Ragans (2-2, 3.44 ERA) makes his 8th start. He has a 1.36 WHIP, 3.2 BB/9 and 11.3 K/9 in 36 2/3 IP.
- Last start: Win, 6 2/3 IP, 1 ER, 4 H, 3 BB, 9 K in 4-1 road win vs. Toronto Blue Jays Tuesday
- 2024 home splits: 1-2, 6.62 ERA, 17 2/3 IP, 13 ER, 27 H (1 HR), 7 BB, 22 K in 4 starts
- Has never faced Milwaukee
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Brewers at Royals odds
Provided by FanDuel Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 9:49 a.m. ET.
- Moneyline (ML): Brewers +120 (bet $100 to win $120) | Royals -142 (bet $142 to win $100)
- Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Brewers +1.5 (-182) | Royals -1.5 (+150)
- Over/Under (O/U): 8.5 (O: -105 | U: -115)
Brewers at Royals picks and predictions
Prediction
Brewers 4, Royals 3
Moneyline
LEAN BREWERS (+120).
Milwaukee has won 3 of its last 5 games on the road and is one of MLB's best-performing road teams. The Brewers have won 2 of Wilson's 3 starts and have given up a combined 3 runs across those games.
The Royals have lost 2 games in a row, both at home, and allowed a combined 18 runs in those. They have lost 5 of their last 6 games at home. Given how well the Brewers have played in Wilson's starts and on the road, back BREWERS (+120).
Run line/Against the spread
PASS.
There's no great value here as the Brewers +1.5 (-182) are too expensive as a run-line underdog and the Royals -1.5 (+150) are too risky as a run-line favorite. Avoid a run-line play.
Over/Under
BET UNDER 8.5 (-115).
In Ragans' 4 home starts, the game has ended with 5, 7, 3 and 16 total runs, so 3 of those 4 would've gone Under this total. The Royals have gone Under in 4 of their last 5 games and are 11-22-2 O/U on the season.
Milwaukee is 19-13-1 O/U, so it has a more dynamic offense. But the Brewers are just 2-3-1 O/U in their last 6 games, scoring 3 or fewer in 2 of their last 3 and allowing 2 or fewer runs in 4 of their last 6 games.
Couple those trends together and back UNDER 8.5 (-115).
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